The 2019-nCoV has been sweeping through China and has recently begun to infect people in the US as well. According a report from the CDC, as of the 5th of February, 11 people in the US have tested positive for this virus with 76 cases still pending. Additionally, in a meeting at the end of January, the World Health Organization decided to name the 2019-nCoV a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” All of this knowledge is very alarming, leading many to wonder in a panic whether we are on the verge of massive pandemic. Exactly how contagious is this virus? These questions are particularly relevant to me, as my best friend’s uncle and nephew are currently in China, and are unable to return to their pregnant wife/mother.
In order to determine how contagious a virus, is it is very important to consider how it is transmitted. According to an informational article from the CDC, the 2019-nCoV is thought to be spread by person-to-person contact. Specifically, it is spread through respiratory droplets that are released into the air by infected people when they sneeze or cough. These droplets are then breathed in by anybody within a 6-foot radius of the person who sneezed/coughed. Since this method of transmission is very similar to other methods of acquiring a respiratory illness, it is possible that the 2019-nCoV could also be spread in all the ways other respiratory illnesses are spread. For example, the 2019-nCoV could also be spread by inanimate objects coated in respiratory secretions that are then touched by an unsuspecting passerby. If the contaminated hand is then rubbed into the eyes, the virus will be able to infect its unwitting victim. Thus, while a requirement of person-to-person contact would normally result in a less contagious virus, the possibility of indirect spread would increase the contagious nature of the virus.
One important thing to note is that none of the previous information on transmission of this virus is certain, as the CDC has made clear. Currently, the experts are just using what they know about similar diseases to make predictions about this new one. While it may seem pretty scary that a lot of what we “know” about this virus consists of educated guesses, science can and must work like this. After all, when something unexplained needs explaining, the best way to learn about it is to first form an educated hypothesis and test it. While all of this information is helpful, it is not very calming to those with family members who could be exposed to the virus. In situations like this, the best thing we can do is trust that the experts are doing their best and do OUR best to protect ourselves from the sickness. For example, you should NEVER touch your face and you should wash your hands a LOT.
Microbes and Musings 